Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 3.179654 3.767593 4.421507 5.200945 6.102845 7.111717 8.323753
2025-07-13 2.453385 3.284713 4.312530 5.667922 7.398394 9.522941 12.316596
2025-07-20 1.896969 2.821258 4.071579 5.865457 8.347790 11.632123 16.270536
2025-07-27 1.538494 2.506758 3.921791 6.102005 9.327961 13.866036 20.656301
2025-08-03 1.230995 2.180442 3.668618 6.112390 9.948290 15.640201 24.591359
2025-08-10 0.961487 1.843855 3.321216 5.895406 10.161334 16.805837 27.733472
2025-08-17 0.747124 1.546444 2.971562 5.597242 10.173850 17.627787 30.398022
2025-08-24 0.613345 1.361838 2.774993 5.512954 10.505098 18.963021 33.981878
2025-08-31 0.511444 1.214161 2.614714 5.459087 10.866353 20.365956 37.795346
2025-09-07 0.458449 1.154752 2.610122 5.689476 11.758185 22.756174 43.504284
2025-09-14 0.395494 1.058404 2.512552 5.718952 12.269572 24.512369 48.251763
2025-09-21 0.341838 0.970620 2.416075 5.732385 12.744282 26.237609 53.087948
2025-09-28 0.292079 0.882268 2.306555 5.710457 13.164232 27.938894 58.116294
2025-10-05 0.280036 0.889288 2.418082 6.192555 14.690181 31.930779 67.871642
2025-10-12 0.252826 0.848366 2.407921 6.396831 15.650033 34.898781 75.911657
2025-10-19 0.231210 0.817880 2.417855 6.649006 16.743600 38.238137 84.974397
2025-10-26 0.201671 0.755516 2.333629 6.658894 17.291110 40.496458 92.043121
2025-11-02 0.167340 0.667713 2.163249 6.423907 17.239150 41.475048 96.549218
2025-11-09 0.135945 0.579424 1.972251 6.101405 16.932238 41.861725 99.828319
2025-11-16 0.116463 0.526769 1.873720 6.010204 17.177912 43.492116 105.915056
2025-11-23 0.100706 0.482764 1.792055 5.951931 17.497538 45.316349 112.573642
2025-11-30 0.094047 0.472635 1.815777 6.201037 18.643170 49.157638 124.047630
2025-12-07 0.083516 0.442902 1.768908 6.232900 19.214309 51.685547 132.716953